Marcia Hultman

Cabinet Secretary

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South Dakota e-Labor Bulletin

July 2025

Employment growth projected in South Dakota’s sub-state areas

Employment in the Rapid City and Sioux Falls metro areas is projected to increase 7.6% and 9.3%, respectively, by 2032. This is based on sub-state employment projections released recently.

About the Data

The projections data uses a base of 2022 with a 10-year projection. Employment is projected for three areas:

  1. The Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) of Rapid City
  2. The MSA of Sioux Falls
  3. The ‘Balance of State’ (BOS) area (all counties except those included in the MSAs.)

In the 2022-2032 projections data, the Sioux Falls MSA includes the counties of Lincoln, Minnehaha, McCook, and Turner. The Rapid City MSA includes Custer, Meade, and Pennington counties.
The projections are done for industries at the three-digit North American Industry Classification System (NACIS) level. Data are available for at least 44 industries (in the Rapid City MSA) and up to 62 industries (BOS). (Learn more about NAICS.)

Projections are done for occupations as well. The Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) structure is used. Projections data are available for at least 350 occupations (for the Rapid City MSA) and up to more than 500 occupations (for the BOS area). (Learn more about SOC.)

The 10-year projections are completed for statewide South Dakota every even-numbered year (last released in June 2024). The sub-state projections are done every odd-numbered year (released earlier this month).
Projections data are available for downloading in both Excel and PDF formats. Visit the Projections menu on our website.

Projected Employment Trends

Employment in the Sioux Falls MSA is projected to reach 195,612 by 2032. Meanwhile, the Rapid City MSA’s 2032 employment level is projected at 85,450. The BOS area is projected to increase by 6.6% over the 10-year period, reaching 269,502 by 2032.

Employment in the Sioux Falls MSA accounted for 35.0% of the state’s employment in 2022. That ratio will rise just slightly (to 35.5%) by 2032, according to the projections.

The Rapid City MSA made up 15.5% of the state’s employment in 2022. That ratio is projected to hold steady until 2032. Meanwhile, 49.5% of the state’s workers were in the BOS area in 2022. This is projected to decline slightly to 48.9% by 2032.

The industries driving the growth in the Sioux Falls MSA (those with the greatest absolute growth projected to 2032) are:

  • Hospitals (projected growth of 2,637)
  • Ambulatory Health Care Services (+1,269)
  • Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (+1,265)
  • Food Services and Drinking Places (+1,213)
  • Specialty Trade Contractors (+877)
  • Administrative and Support Services (+707)
  • Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods (+690)
  • Educational Services (+645)
  • Construction of Buildings (+361)
  • Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers (+306)

The Rapid City MSA industries projected to show the most absolute employment growth to 2032 are listed below. Large growth is projected in many of the same industries as in the Sioux Falls MSA. But a few differences reflect the importance of tourism in the western SD metro area.

  • Hospitals (+701)
  • Food Services and Drinking Places (+655)
  • Ambulatory Health Care Services (+575)
  • Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (+417)
  • Specialty Trade Contractors (+357)
  • Educational Services (+222)
  • Accommodation, including Hotels and Motels (+207)
  • Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers (+166)
  • Nursing and Residential Care Facilities (+161)
  • Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods (+159)

The list below shows the industries projected to show the greatest absolute employment growth in the BOS area. Again, there are many similarities to the metro area lists. But we see the importance of employment in Food Manufacturing and Local Government agencies in the state’s smaller (non-metro) communities.

  • Food Services and Drinking Places (+1,563)
  • Hospitals (+1,370)
  • Educational Services (+1,005)
  • Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (+935)
  • Ambulatory Health Care Services (+929)
  • Food Manufacturing (+602)
  • Specialty Trade Contractors (+596)
  • Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods (+590)
  • Local Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals (+503)
  • Gasoline Stations and Fuel Dealers (+452)

Want more detail? Download the industry projections for the substate areas, or check out the area occupational projections for 2022 to 2032. Want to compare the area data to statewide trends? Previous Labor Bulletin articles analyzed the statewide projections from several perspectives:

Learn more about the projections data on our Technical Notes page. Contact us with any questions or for assistance downloading and using the projections data.