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South Dakota e-Labor Bulletin

August 2024

South Dakota industries projected to decline through 2032

Although not as pleasant to think about as projected growth in industries, projected declines also reflect trends driven by technological advancements, consolidation of companies, economic impacts, and changes in consumer preference. While last month’s article delved into South Dakota’s industries projected to grow the fastest through 2032, here we’ll focus on the industries projected to decline.

Nationally the largest declines at the sector level are projected to be in Utilities, Mining, and Retail Trade over the next 10 years. The mix of declining industries is considerably different in South Dakota. It’s important to remember many industries in South Dakota have relatively small employment levels, so even a small loss of workers over the projections period can substantially impact a subsector’s percent change.

As the table below shows, just six South Dakota industries at the three-digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) level are projected to show noteworthy (more than 1.0%) employment declines by 2032. Three of the six are in the Information industry sector and have close inter-relationships. If demand and business activity suffer in one of the subsectors, the other subsectors feel the pinch as well. In fact, two more of the industries on this short list are being impacted by the same transition--to electronic processing and presentation of information, away from more traditional methods used in the past.

Publishing Industries (except Internet)

The Publishing Industries (except Internet) subsector is projected to decrease by 15.2% (136 workers) through 2032 in South Dakota. Establishments in this sector publish newspapers, magazines, periodicals, books, directories, mailing lists, and software. This subsector is extremely reliant on consumer preference. The driving force behind the decline is the availability of news, sports, and other content on smart devices such as TVs, smartphones, tablets, and laptop computers. Consumer preferences continue to shift toward consuming content from the internet rather than a physical paper product. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in 2021 (most recent data available) smartphones were the most common computing device, with 90% of households having at least one. Desktop or laptop computers came in second at 81%, followed by tablets, with 64% of households owning at least one. The same Census source showed 88% of South Dakota households had a broadband internet subscription. These figures have increased, and the COVID-19 pandemic further intensified our reliance on the internet.

Printing and Related Support Activities

The number of workers employed in the Printing and Related Support Activities subsector in South Dakota is expected to decrease by 4.7% (64 workers). This subsector includes establishments that print products such as newspapers, books, labels, business cards, stationery, business forms, and other materials, and perform support activities like data imaging, platemaking, and bookbinding. It stands to reason as reliance on electronic transmission of data continues to increase, the need for printed materials continues to fall.

Paper Manufacturing

Not surprisingly, worker levels in the Paper Manufacturing subsector are projected to decrease by 2.9% (20 workers) in the state. This subsector includes manufacturers of pulp, paper, or converted paper products. In addition to the transition to electronic information rather than printed materials, automation has also decreased the demand for workers in this manufacturing subsector. Paper product manufacturers continue to implement innovations which lower overhead and labor costs.

Telecommunications

The Telecommunications subsector is projected to decrease by 2.9% (72 workers) through 2032 in South Dakota. This subsector is comprised of entities that engage in operating and/or providing access to facilities for the transmission of voice, data, text, sound, and video content. Establishments provide telecommunication and related services such as telephone, cable, satellite television distribution, and internet access. According to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, South Dakota’s Telecommunications subsector lost three establishments from 2017 to 2022. With the continued popularity of streaming services and the availability of entertainment on the internet, continued declines are expected among providers of more traditional services that bring us news and entertainment.

Broadcasting and Content Providers

The number of workers employed in the Broadcasting and Content Providers subsector in South Dakota is expected to slightly decrease by 2.3% (19 workers). Establishments within this subsector create content or acquire the right to distribute content and subsequently broadcast or distribute that content. In addition to the impact of electronic communications and entertainment discussed above, this subsector has and will continue to be impacted by the consolidation of companies. Several radio and news outlets are consolidating to cut costs. Over the last several years, local broadcasting and content providers are being bought out by national providers. According to a Keloland news article, “Taking away the ‘local’ from SD radio Stations,” a national company that owns several South Dakota radio stations is making cuts, leaving communities without their longtime radio personalities. Instances like the above example happen over time with consolidations in small markets.

Wholesale Trade Agents, and Brokers

What is likely a welcome reprieve from what may have read as a broken record above is the final subsector on the list of South Dakota industries projected to experience employment declines through 2032. The Wholesale Trade Agents and Brokers subsector is projected to decrease by 1.5% (just seven workers). Establishments in this subsector arrange for the sale of goods owned by others, generally on a fee or commission basis. Businesses that act on behalf of the buyers and sellers of goods to facilitate a wholesale trade are included here. Although recent revisions in the NAICS impacted this subsector and made it more difficult to precisely identify employment trends, businesses within this subsector are continually utilizing automation to make operations more efficient and contain labor costs.

For More Information

For 2022 to 2032 employment projections for all South Dakota industries, please visit the Projections menu on our website. (Yes, more electronic communication of content.) For more information about how the projections are completed, please see our Technical Notes page. Please contact us as needed for assistance or with questions.