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South Dakota e-Labor Bulletin

September 2024

South Dakota Occupational Employment Projections to 2032

As mentioned in an earlier e-Labor Bulletin article, South Dakota Industry Trends to 2032, South Dakota’s employment is projected to increase by 7.7% overall during the 2022-2032 decade, adding approximately 39,500 new jobs to the state’s economy. While that article focused on employment projections by industry (where people work), this article will focus on employment projections by occupation (what people do on the job). Specifically, we will explore the 10 occupations projected to show the fastest growth in South Dakota to 2032.

South Dakota and U.S. Employment Snapshot for 2022-2032

U.S. occupational employment is projected to increase by 2.8% from 2022-2032, from 164.5 million jobs in 2022 to 169.1 million by 2032.

South Dakota’s occupational growth is projected to be much faster than the nation’s 2.8% for the 2022-2032 decade at 7.7%. The Labor Market Information Center (LMIC) released projections for 577 detailed occupations. Employment for 515 occupations is projected to increase or remain the same, while 62 occupations are projected to decline.

LMIC completed the 2022-2032 statewide projections using the nationally adopted projections methodology, which allows for comparability of this data across states, as well as the nation. This methodology incorporates historical time-series employment data as well as state and national economic trends and utilizes a variety of statistical models.

Let’s look at the expected changes in occupational employment levels over the 2022–2032 decade and the trends expected to drive those changes. Many of these occupations have a high concentration of employment in specific industries. Therefore, the trends expected to affect employment in those industries largely drive the employment changes projected across these occupations. However, the employment outlook of occupations can also be influenced by factors specific to an occupation or by trends affecting other industries in which the workers in the occupation are employed.

Projections methodologies are heavily based on historical relationships in the data. Nevertheless, LMIC also researches factors expected to affect employment, particularly those that may not be reflected in historical data, such as new technologies and legislation. The analysis below reflects the research used when developing and validating these projections.

Occupational projections start at a macro level. There are two factors which affect the employment change of an occupation:

1. Changes in industry employment. This is easy to understand. If an industry’s employment grows or contracts, the number of workers within the industry will increase or decrease.
2. Changes in the mix of occupations (commonly referred to as staffing patterns) in an industry. This factor is a bit more complicated and requires more research and analysis. This often includes examining historical staffing pattern data and analyzing factors that may have affected the mix of occupations within the given industry.

There are also micro-level factors which are also weighted and included when developing occupational projections. Some of the more common micro-level considerations are demographics, technology, replacement of one product or service for another, outsourcing and organizational restructuring, and legislative and political reconstruction. Many of the occupations on South Dakota’s top 10 fastest-growing list are growing due to one or more of these micro-factors.

South Dakota’s Top 10 Fastest-Growing Occupations to 2032

The table below features the 10 occupations projected to grow the fastest by 2032. The narrative following the table explores some reasons for the growth.
We defined the fastest-growing occupations as those with employment of at least 100 workers during the base year (2022) and the highest percent change of employment during the 2022-2032 projections period. Please keep in mind fastest growing does not necessarily equate to many new jobs. However, because of the role fastest-growing occupations play in the occupational and economic landscape, whether many or few, all occupations are important and noteworthy.

First Glance Impressions

As mentioned above, employment trends in industries are a major driving force in occupational trends as well. You may notice this coming into play in the top 10 fastest-growing occupations list above. Energy, health care, computer, and science-related industry growth is playing a role in the occupational growth we are projecting.

This is the case not just in South Dakota but nationally as well, especially within the top three fastest-growing occupations.

Wind Turbine Service Technicians

This occupation was the number one fastest-growing occupation during the 2020-2030 round of projections in South Dakota, and it still holds the number one spot during the 2032 projection period. South Dakota is following the national trend because this occupation also held the fastest-growing spot on the national list. It has been over 20 years since the first wind turbines began dotting the South Dakota horizon and “wind techs,” as they are often called, not only install those big fans but also maintain and repair them as needed. As this natural renewable energy source continues to grow in popularity, the need for these workers is also projected to continue at a whirlwind pace.

Nurse Practitioners

Nurse practitioners once again took the number two spot in the fastest-growing list in South Dakota (56.4%) as well as the national ranking (45%). This occupation almost took over the number one spot in South Dakota, missing by tenths of a percent a tie with wind techs. It is expected this occupation will continue to see strong growth for many years to come. It’s no secret South Dakota’s population has experienced growth in the number of people flocking here in search of gainful employment, pride in owning their own piece of paradise, and the freedom to enjoy South Dakota’s common-sense approach to life. In addition, like the nation, South Dakota has been and will continue to experience the graying of its population. So, it stands to reason a growing and aging population will require medical care.

Those are only two of the reasons the nurse practitioner occupation is expected to show continued growth in our state. The state’s medical hubs have and will continue to see phenomenal growth as we work to ensure excellence in our health industry. The state’s mid-sized cities are also experiencing strong growth in the health industry as they become micro-hub medical centers. Even most rural towns across South Dakota have clinics and satellite offices to care for their population. It is not bragging to say South Dakota stands as a beacon of what the rural tapestry of health care can look like.

In a state where her residents work and play hard, accidents and illness happen. In the past, geographical distance inherent in our rural state impeded timely emergency treatment and health care. Our pioneering spirit and forward thinking fueled more infrastructure and technology to improve South Dakota’s health care for all citizens, regardless of where they live. We found a way for our small hospitals, clinics, and satellite offices across the state to treat patients for serious, and sometimes life-threatening accidents, conditions, and diseases, right where they live.

Today, a patient in Faith, South Dakota can meet with a nurse practitioner who is a part of a much bigger network of doctors, surgeons, and specialists available for virtual consultation or a follow-up in-person appointment as needed. Some of the health care professionals on the team are several states away or even in a different country. While technology makes this “virtual medical team” approach to diagnosis and treatment possible, patients are often able to remain in their own home or community health facility, remaining near family and in familiar surroundings. Nurse practitioners in local communities make this possible.

Whether it is setting a broken bone or helping someone dealing with a terminal illness, nurse practitioners are the ones in the trenches administering the care and support their patients need, when and where they need it. Because of the vital role this occupation plays in South Dakota’s health care industry, it is likely we will see this occupation grace the top 10 list for many years to come.

Data Scientists

Coming in at number three are data scientists. New to the fastest grower list, data scientists are expected to analyze, graph, and project their way into the third fastest occupational growth rate for the 2022 to 2032 projections cycle, increasing at almost 41%. This is a good example of a relatively small occupation that will see significant growth and notoriety over the next 10 years. As the amount of data and the need to analyze that data continues to increase, this emerging occupation will become more commonplace in South Dakota. This occupation is also number three on the nation’s fastest-growing list (expected to see a 35% increase) during the same period.

These workers develop and implement a set of techniques or analytics applications to transform raw data into meaningful information. They use data-oriented programming languages and visualization software to apply data mining and modeling to extract and analyze information for large structured and unstructured datasets. They provide users with a visual report of data findings through the dynamic data reports they create.

Information Security Analysts

In the number four position on the fastest-growing list for the 2032 projections period is information security analysts, which are expected to see a 38% employment increase in South Dakota. This is a slightly faster increase than nationally (32%).

Like its third-place counterpart data scientists though, these workers have been around—but their occupation is just beginning to emerge as a separate, unique occupation. Information security analysts plan, implement, upgrade, and/or monitor security measures for the protection of computer networks and information. They assess system vulnerabilities for security risks and propose and implement risk mitigation strategies. They ensure appropriate security controls are in place to safeguard digital files and vital electronic infrastructure. They also respond to computer security breaches and viruses. They go by many different job titles such as information security officers, information security specialists, information systems security analysts, and network security analysts to name just a few.

As cyberattacks and data breaches continue (and hackers get increasingly sharper and more devious), these workers will work behind the scenes to keep our state and the nation moving forward and functioning safely.

Physician Assistants

Rounding off the top five fastest-growing occupations is physician assistants which is expected to increase by 34%. This occupation is projected to grow faster in South Dakota than nationally, where its 27% growth ranks it the eighth fastest-growing.

Physician Assistants provide health care services typically performed by a physician. They conduct complete physicals, provide treatment, and counsel patients. They also may prescribe medication. Like nurse practitioners, physician assistants fill gaps in medical services for physicians and/or surgeons. Many of the reasons for the projected growth in this occupation are the same as those for nurse practitioners because they perform the same medical services, and their skill sets and role in the bigger healthcare picture are very similar.

Restaurant Cooks

Restaurant cooks took the sixth spot on South Dakota’s fastest-growing list at 32%. This occupation is also the largest occupation on the list, projected to account for a sizable 500 worker increase.

Who doesn’t like to eat out? Is it really a surprise restaurant cooks are on the top 10 fastest-growing occupations list? Not in South Dakota it isn’t.

However, some states are seeing restaurants shut their doors because of hostile business climates and the inability to make ends meet in the razor-thin business margin environment of the eating and drinking industry. But South Dakota’s eating and drinking establishments have been able to buck the system. Our eateries are not just surviving but thriving. The recipe for success for these South Dakota businesses is simple: hard-working, talented restaurant cooks and support staff in a state with a robust business climate and tax-friendly environment.

Whether you’re hungry for a meal at a classic sit-down restaurant, a quick burger and fries, something to tantalize your tastebuds at a new niche or ethnic restaurant, it is South Dakota cooks who have you covered. Likewise, whether you’re looking for dining-out options in a small or mid-sized town or one of South Dakota’s metro areas, restaurant cooks are a staple ingredient of your opportunities.

Physical Therapists Assistants

Physical therapists assistants are projected to increase slightly faster in South Dakota than nationally. In seventh place with a 30% increase, this occupation is projected to continue to see strong growth in South Dakota. These assistants took the ninth-place spot nationally, with a projected increase of 27% over the 2032 projections round.

These health workers are also sometimes referred to as PTAs. They work under the direction and supervision of physical therapists. They help patients recovering from injuries and illnesses regain movement and manage pain. They work directly with patients through exercise, massage, gait and balance training, and other therapeutic interventions. They record patients’ progress and report the results to the physical therapist who adjusts treatment plans.
The reasons for the expected continued growth in this occupation mirror the other health-related occupations on this top 10 list. A growing and aging population is fueling the need for this occupation and will continue to do so.

Medical and Health Services Managers

Given the continued growth projected for South Dakota’s health services industry (second fastest), it is not surprising our number eight spot on the fastest-growing occupations list is held by the medical and health services managers occupation. This is a large occupation and is projected to see fast growth at 27% for the 2032 projections forecast in South Dakota. This rate will closely mirror the nation at 28%.

The health care industry is seeing an uptick in new and/or expanding facilities in a variety of areas across the state. These services are needed to specialize in a specific branch of medicine or health care or to assist in the care of specific segments of our society, such as specialized care facilities for the aging, or those with chronic, debilitating, or terminal medical conditions.

Nurse Anesthetists

Rounding off the top 10 list and coming in at number nine are nurse anesthetists. This occupation is the last of the health care related occupations to make the South Dakota 10 fastest-growing list, at 27%. These workers are an integral part of the health care team. They administer anesthesia, monitor patients' vital signs, and oversee patients’ recovery from anesthesia. They may assist anesthesiologists, surgeons, physicians, or dentists. They must be registered nurses who have specialized graduate education. These workers are found in more than just hospitals or surgical centers, and as people live longer and have access to more types of insurance (such as dental insurance and broader medical insurance coverage), more procedures are being performed under general or local anesthesia every year. More demand for procedures increases the demand for nurse anesthetists.

Industrial Machinery Mechanics

Industrial machinery mechanics finish off the top 10 fastest-growing list in South Dakota. These workers maintain and repair factory equipment and other industrial machinery, such as conveying systems, production machinery, and packaging equipment. They keep machines in working order by detecting and correcting issues and errors before they become a problem or the machine and/or product it produces is damaged. This occupation is projected to see swift growth through 2032 at 27%.

The continuing adoption of automated manufacturing will require more industrial machinery mechanics to keep machines in good working order. The use of automated conveyors to move products and materials through warehouses and factories is an area of high demand for skilled machinery mechanics, and as production and warehousing equipment is designed to perform more tasks and become more computerized and automated, the skills these workers must possess will remain in high demand.

For More Information

The employment projections through 2032 recently completed by LMIC for 577 detailed are available on our website from the occupational projections menu page. For more background information about the projections please visit our technical notes page.