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South Dakota e-Labor Bulletin

October 2024

Diving Deeper into Occupational Demand Projected to 2032

In last month’s article, we covered occupational employment growth projected through 2032, focusing on those occupations projected to grow the fastest. Growth, however, is only one portion of the demand for workers in an occupation. When calculating future workforce needs for a specific occupation, employment growth is a relatively minor factor in the number of workers needed. There are two components to occupational demand: the growth of an occupation and the need for additional workers due to separation. The separation component of occupational demand combines both the transfer of workers and workers permanently exiting the workforce. The transfer of workers is defined as workers who leave employment in one occupation for employment in a different occupation. A separation caused by an exit is when a worker leaves the workforce entirely.

The table below shows the top 10 occupations projected to have the greatest demand for workers in South Dakota each year, on average, through 2032.

The methodology used for employment projections at the national level and by all state agencies like South Dakota is developed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The use of the BLS methodology ensures not only statistically sound and reliable data is produced but also allows for comparability of data among similar geographic areas.

National employment projections for 2022 to 2032 were released in September 2023; state projections followed and were rolled out in July 2024.

The methodology used by both BLS and its state partners to develop these projections includes what is referred to as separation. This methodology was designed by BLS to better understand and project what is likely to happen with a dynamic economy in which workers generally hold many jobs throughout their work lives. This methodology incorporates past data, patterns, and trends to general employment projections and captures two types of separations briefly mentioned above:

1. Workers who leave the labor force entirely. (In the table above, this is the Annual Openings due to Labor Force Exits column.)
2. Workers who leave one major occupational group for another. (In the table above, this is the Annual Openings due to Occupational Transfers column.)

The separation methodology for projections is based on the premise every person’s career journey will vary, but certain trends are inherent:

• Transfers between major occupation groups are more common when workers are young, as they explore career possibilities.
• Transfers between occupations tend to be more common in occupations considered “entry level.”
• Transfers are also more common in occupations where working conditions such as undesirable schedules, poor benefits, high stress, and physically demanding work are the norm.
• And finally, movement out of the labor force, known as the exit component, can happen at any age, but is more common as workers age and retire.

Understanding how the separations component of the methodology impacts South Dakota’s projected occupational outlook through 2032

The pie graph below illustrates nearly all of South Dakota’s annual demand for workers during the 2022-2032 projections decade will be due to separations, which includes occupational transfers and labor force exits at 51.3% and 42.5%, respectively. About 6.2% of the state’s annual openings are due to projected new employment growth. South Dakota’s percentage breakout of annual demand is similar to that of the nation for the 2022-2032 projections period. Nationally, transfers made up 54.3% and exits 43.2% of the annual demand for occupations, with 2.5% being caused by growth. South Dakota is predicted to see more new job growth over the 2022-2032 projections period than the nation.

Labor Force Exits

In 2022, 46.8% of South Dakota’s civilian noninstitutionalized population age 55 and over were in the state’s labor force according to the Current Population Survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for BLS. In 2020, 49.2% of South Dakota’s civilian noninstitutionalized population age 55 and over were in the state’s labor force. This is a decrease of 2.4% in the labor force participation rate of this particular age cohort from 2020 to 2022, even though the number of people in that age cohort increased. According to the CPS, the number of South Dakotans age 55+ was 264,000 in 2020, increasing by 7,000 people to 271,000 in 2022. This indicates workers likely exited the labor force at a quicker clip in 2022 than 2020. This is not surprising as more baby boomers are reaching retirement age. It is anticipated as this population continues to age over the 10-year projections period, workers will continue to retire, thereby exiting the labor force.

Retirement is not the only reason workers exit the labor force. Many workers are in the labor force only temporarily for a variety of reasons. Some of these reasons are easy to understand and make sense. Students are one subset of the population who tend to be labor force hoppers. When between sessions in their schooling, they enter the labor force, sometimes even becoming dual job holders. While some of these workers remain in the labor force while school is in session, some exit to put all their effort toward their scholastic and extracurricular activities.

For others, a family event may bring a lifestyle change that causes them to hop into or exit the labor force temporarily. Examples include another family member losing a job, a divorce, or the death of a family member.
Other reasons workers often cite for exiting the labor force are related to family obligations such as caring for an aging or ill family member, caring for young children, or home-schooling family members. Regardless of the reason, when a worker leaves the labor force, the exit creates an occupational opening.

Looking at the table of occupations with the highest demand due to labor force exits, a few interesting observations can be made. First, all the occupations in the exits table require many workers and are either found in South Dakota’s biggest industries or are found across many industries. Secondly, most of these occupations are labor-intensive jobs, requiring many workers and a relatively minimal amount of training. This makes for great opportunities for more mobile labor force participants. Jobs in these types of occupations are more likely to be available not only in larger cities but in smaller towns as well. Examples of occupations are fast food and counter workers, cashiers, retail salespersons, janitors and cleaners, and stockers and order fillers.

These types of occupations also offer flexibility. Whether it is the number of hours worked, the days or shifts worked, they fit those wanting or needing part-time work schedules or having dual work schedules. Because job opportunities are plentiful, the occupations also offer flexibility so a worker can walk away for a period of time and then return to the job they had, or a similar job with a different employer. These occupations have a lot going for them, which makes them a popular choice with the more mobile portion of the labor force, those looking for a first job, those needing or wanting a second job, or someone looking to work for a limited amount of time to increase cash flow.

Many jobs in the occupations with high exit rates are held by the ‘sunset’ portion of the labor force, the semi-retired--those who are preparing to leave the labor force permanently but may not be ready to call it quits yet. Maybe they wanted to leave the hustle, bustle, and stress of the career they chose as their life’s work but weren’t ready to leave the workforce entirely. The schedule flexibility of these occupations appeals to them. They may like to work early mornings or late nights, whatever fits their internal clock. They may also enjoy working at a time when not a lot of workers and customers are present. On the flip side, other ‘sunsetters’ may work for the social aspects, to keep interaction with other people. Whatever their preferences, these high-exit occupations offer them job opportunities, and many employers are happy to hire these seasoned workers. But, because they are semi-retired and not looking to remain in the labor force for an extended time, these workers also tend to increase the number of permanent exits in these occupations.

It would be remiss to assume all workers employed in occupations like fast food and counter servers, cashiers, retail salespersons, janitors and cleaners, stockers, and order fillers are employed only on a temporary or part-time basis. Many workers make these occupations their life’s work and provide a good living for themselves and their families for the tenure of their time in the labor force.

Two occupations at first glance may seem out of place on the high occupational exits table: farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers, and registered nurses. Workers in both of these occupations generally remain in the same occupation for the lion’s share of their careers. Both of these occupations are very large occupations, so it stands to reason they also have many exits. And many of these exits are because workers retire. Ask any farmer or rancher why they do what they do for a living; the answer will likely be along the lines of “I love what I do, and I can’t imagine doing anything else.” It’s more than a career; it’s who they are as a person and their whole way of life. This holds true for those called to nursing as well. Caring for and about others who cannot care for themselves is at the core of those who seek this profession. Though farming/ranching and nursing are very different occupations, both professions are normally held by workers who were called to the occupation and heavily invested in it. Both occupations require a great deal of training, skills, and knowledge, and in the case of farmers/ranchers, extensive capital outlay as well. Considering the investment made in these careers, most workers remain in their vocations until they exit the labor force.

There are two other occupations on high demand due to the exits list which are a bit different than some of the occupations we have looked at: bookkeeping and accounting clerks, and customer service representatives. We may not think of these occupations as being held by the more transient portions of the labor force. Yet a deeper look reveals some similar characteristics with occupations discussed above.

Both of these occupations have many workers and can be found in a variety of industries. So, based on size, these occupations naturally have many openings, some of which are due to workers exiting the labor force. Some workers may exit these occupations to retire. Some may exit the labor force after working in these occupations for a finite amount of time for financial reasons, or because their jobs offered schedules which worked well with other obligations and family responsibilities at the time. Another draw to these occupations in some cases is the option to work from home. In other cases, workers in these occupations may have chosen to downgrade from a more stressful career to a pre-retirement career with fewer demands and/or fewer hours. These occupations make excellent transition jobs for those who need shorter-term employment.

Occupational Transfers

Occupational transfer measures worker attachment to a particular occupation. This component of occupational demand has become more important in more recent years than in the past, when it was more commonplace for individuals to remain in the same occupation throughout their working years.

Both occupational exit and transfer occupations tend to be held by similar demographic pools in the labor force. Generally, both exit and transfer openings are created by the younger and older members of the labor force. Women tend to make up a larger portion of these openings than men, and most of those who take these occupations seem to favor part-time or seasonal work, or work for a limited time in a particular occupation. Some of these workers hold more than one job at a time and some prefer to work alternate work schedules, which consist of either swing, graveyard, early morning, or weekend and holiday work. Transfer workers generally prefer the irregular work schedule more often than the exit portion of the labor market.

Occupations with high demand due to workers transferring out of them tend to be labor-intensive positions with many job openings. For the most part, these occupations are quickly learned and can be found in both cities and more rural areas. Workers can either find part-time or full-time positions as well as a variety of work schedules to fit their needs. To fill positions, most employers are flexible and willing to work around employee scheduling needs. Most employees who take these positions are not interested in making it their life’s work and are employed for a finite amount of time.

Many of the occupations found on the highest occupational transfers list are the same as those on the high exits list: fast food and counter workers, cashiers, retail salespersons, stockers and order fillers, waitresses and waiters, and janitors and cleaners. Again, they are large occupations with high employment levels, so proportionately, it makes sense they also have a large number of openings due to occupational transfer. In other cases (such as with customer service representatives), not only is there extensive employment, but the occupations are found throughout a wide variety of industries.

Like workers who exit the labor force, workers who transfer out of many of the occupations on the high transfer list often take them for a finite amount of time. But, unlike those who exit the labor force altogether, these workers create openings when they accept employment in a completely different occupation. It’s not just changing from one position within a company to another position within the same occupation, or even transferring from one company to another in the same occupation. An opening caused by an occupational transfer is created when a worker becomes employed in a completely different occupation. An example would be someone working as a retail salesperson in a department store taking courses in a computer-related program who, upon completion of the program, applies for and accepts a position as a network security specialist. The position left open, the retail salesperson job, would be an occupational opening due to a transfer. And it doesn’t matter if the new position accepted was with the same employer or a different one.

In some cases, occupations on the high occupational transfer list (like bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks and nursing assistants) are stepping stone occupations. The entry requirements and work schedules may be a good fit for workers over the short term. Over the longer term, workers may seek additional education and advance their career into higher-level occupations such as accountants or nurses. With more education and/or work experience, customer service representatives may be promoted to administrative or mid-level management positions.

In other cases, working conditions and responsibility demands which are not a good fit for the worker’s personality cause higher burn-out and cause workers to seek opportunities in other occupations. For example, a customer service representative position where “cold calls” are required may not be a good fit for someone more timid. Likewise, one who doesn’t like conflict would probably not be employed long-term as a customer service representative constantly fielding customer complaints.

One occupation that seems a bit out of place on the occupational openings due to the transfer list is farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers. This is a large occupation in South Dakota (the largest, in fact, with an estimated 2022 employment of more than 21,000), so proportionately, high demand is not surprising. But perhaps what is surprising is the number of farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers we are predicting will be needed because of occupational transfers. One reason it is surprising is because there is a lot involved in becoming a farmer or rancher. It is not an occupation you just fall into. Or is it? Farming and ranching are both known as businesses passed from one generation to another, thus the term “family farm” or “family ranch.” But what might be a “dream job” to one person isn’t necessarily a dream to another person, even if they share the same genes. Or there may be multiple family members who love farming/ranching, but it doesn’t mean they will work well together. In other cases, the family business may not be able to financially support more than one family. In still other cases, the workload, amount of responsibility, and stress cause burnout and lead to pursuing another occupation. And finally, there is the very real financial side to this business; some are forced into other occupations for financial reasons alone. An individual moving on in search of a different occupation in any of these situations creates an occupational opening due to a transfer.

For More Information

The projected occupational demand information to 2032 recently completed for 577 detailed occupations in South Dakota is available on this website. Please visit our Employment Projections by Occupation menu page for links to and tips on using the virtual site, plus links for related occupational descriptions and technical notes about the projections.