Marcia Hultman

Cabinet Secretary

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South Dakota e-Labor Bulletin

November 2022

Hot Careers to 2030: What occupations made the list?

Over the previous three months, our Labor Bulletin articles have focused on projected employment and demand trends in the state to 2030:

Industry employment projections and trends (published August 2022)
Occupational employment projections and trends (published September 2022)
Occupational demand (published October 2022)

A look at expected employment trends is a helpful indicator for planners of all types. A deeper look at occupational demand (the number of workers estimated to be needed) is even more helpful for career decision-makers and for those taxed with ensuring workforce needs are met.

When career planners, businesses, and education and training program providers consider projected demand for workers, there is another important factor to consider. There may be overwhelming demand for workers in occupations for which a proposed training program prepares employees. But will the worker earn a wage justifying the cost of the program? In other words, what is the return on investment—for both the training or education provider AND for the individual pursuing that education?

To that end, DLR has LMIC analyze occupational demand projections in concert with occupational wage data to identify those occupations most likely to provide a positive return on investment. In other words, demand for workers is projected to be high in the occupation, AND workers currently in the occupation earn relatively high wages. The high demand/high wage occupations are identified as “Hot Careers.”

To be a “Hot Career,” an occupation must meet each of the following criteria:

Be projected to show employment growth from 2020 to 2030.
Have projected annual openings (a measure of demand for workers) greater than the average across all occupations (83) for 2020-2030.
Have an average/mean wage greater than the median wage across all occupations in 2021 ($37,708).

The table below shows South Dakota's Hot Careers, including the data for each of these factors that put them on the list of the state's high demand/high wage occupations.

South Dakota Hot Careers High Demand, High Wage Occupations
SOC Code(s)	Occupational Title	Average Annual Openings	2020 Employment	2030 Employment	Numeric Change 2020- 2030	Percent Change 2020-2030	Average Annual Wage 2021	Level of Education Recommended in South Dakota
13-2011	Accountants and Auditors	538	5,228	5,801	573	11.0%	$70,191	Bachelor's degree
49-3021	Automotive Body and Related Repairers	92	881	959	78	8.9%	$48,876	Some postsecondary education
49-3023	Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics	251	2,343	2,493	150	6.4%	$45,925	Some postsecondary education
49-3031	Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists	112	1,080	1,176	96	8.9%	$51,125	Some postsecondary education
47-2031	Carpenters	586	5,652	6,126	474	8.4%	$40,261	High school diploma or equivalent
47-2051	Cement Masons and Concrete Finishers	170	1,730	1,830	100	5.8%	$39,778	High school diploma or equivalent
11-1011	Chief Executives	92	1,299	1,328	29	2.2%	$272,779	Bachelor's degree
21-1021	Child, Family, and School Social Workers	176	1,772	1,877	105	5.9%	$44,771	Bachelor's degree
17-2051	Civil Engineers	116	1,264	1,472	208	16.5%	$82,339	Bachelor's degree
21-2011	Clergy	257	2,308	2,500	192	8.3%	$48,272	Bachelor's degree
29-2010	Clinical Laboratory Technologists and Technicians	104	1,325	1,485	160	12.1%	$50,790	Bachelor's degree
27-2022	Coaches and Scouts	183	1,175	1,308	133	11.3%	$41,312	Bachelor's degree
51-9124	Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	191	1,596	1,815	219	13.7%	$40,909	High school diploma or equivalent
13-1041	Compliance Officers	94	1,086	1,158	72	6.6%	$62,487	Bachelor's degree
15-1232	Computer User Support Specialists	121	1,498	1,596	98	6.5%	$42,460	Some postsecondary education
33-3012	Correctional Officers and Jailers	145	1,481	1,544	63	4.3%	$42,155	High school diploma or equivalent
51-9032	Cutting and Slicing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	99	812	819	7	0.9%	$41,157	High school diploma or equivalent
31-9091	Dental Assistants	117	860	970	110	12.8%	$42,007	Some postsecondary education
47-2111	Electricians	307	2,495	2,835	340	13.6%	$51,763	Some postsecondary education
25-2021	Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education	333	4,184	4,454	270	6.5%	$47,669	Bachelor's degree
49-3041	Farm Equipment Mechanics and Service Technicians	137	1,147	1,313	166	14.5%	$49,015	Some postsecondary education
47-1011	First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers	198	1,817	2,013	196	10.8%	$70,598	High school diploma or equivalent
45-1011	First-Line Supervisors of Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Workers	87	551	612	61	11.1%	$60,478	Some postsecondary education
37-1011	First-Line Supervisors of Housekeeping and Janitorial Workers	98	752	841	89	11.8%	$40,815	High school diploma or equivalent
49-1011	First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers	111	1,097	1,192	95	8.7%	$72,744	Some postsecondary education
41-1012	First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers	95	959	1,030	71	7.4%	$99,828	High school diploma or equivalent
43-1011	First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers	174	1,741	1,760	19	1.1%	$53,990	Some postsecondary education
51-1011	First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers	162	1,425	1,586	161	11.3%	$64,680	Some postsecondary education
41-1011	First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers	468	4,065	4,343	278	6.8%	$50,450	High school diploma or equivalent
53-1047	FirstLine Supervisors of Transportation & Material Moving Workers, Except Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors	147	1,227	1,339	112	9.1%	$60,620	High school diploma or equivalent
11-9051	Food Service Managers	194	1,471	1,675	204	13.9%	$57,093	High school diploma or equivalent
11-1021	General and Operations Managers	387	3,940	4,399	459	11.7%	$129,373	Associate degree
49-9021	Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers	138	1,283	1,405	122	9.5%	$48,400	Some postsecondary education
53-3032	Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers	945	7,700	8,392	692	9.0%	$47,642	Some postsecondary education
47-4051	Highway Maintenance Workers	204	1,870	1,961	91	4.9%	$38,768	High school diploma or equivalent
13-1071	Human Resources Specialists	127	1,148	1,277	129	11.2%	$59,634	Bachelor's degree
49-9041	Industrial Machinery Mechanics	142	1,119	1,452	333	29.8%	$52,262	Some postsecondary education
53-7051	Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators	234	1,864	2,088	224	12.0%	$38,508	High school diploma or equivalent
41-3021	Insurance Sales Agents	287	2,694	3,014	320	11.9%	$66,372	Some postsecondary education
29-2061	Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses	175	2,046	2,193	147	7.2%	$41,833	Some postsecondary education
53-3033	Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers	429	3,425	3,789	364	10.6%	$39,443	High school diploma or equivalent
43-4131	Loan Interviewers and Clerks	181	1,955	2,026	71	3.6%	$39,963	High school diploma or equivalent
13-2072	Loan Officers	180	2,069	2,241	172	8.3%	$74,127	Associate degree
51-4041	Machinists	100	805	921	116	14.4%	$44,286	High school diploma or equivalent
49-9071	Maintenance and Repair Workers, General	358	3,267	3,624	357	10.9%	$40,695	High school diploma or equivalent
13-1111	Management Analysts	360	3,289	3,739	450	13.7%	$82,762	Bachelor's degree
13-1161	Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists	146	1,084	1,363	279	25.7%	$62,733	Bachelor's degree
11-9111	Medical and Health Services Managers	96	864	1,083	219	25.4%	$112,068	Bachelor's degree
29-2098	Medical Dosimetrists, Medical Records Specialists, and Health Technologists and Technicians, All Other	104	1,263	1,377	114	9.0%	$47,163	Some postsecondary education
25-2022	Middle School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education	156	1,959	2,086	127	6.5%	$48,233	Bachelor's degree
15-1244	Network and Computer Systems Administrators	148	1,937	2,118	181	9.3%	$68,904	Bachelor's degree
47-2073	Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators	251	2,123	2,314	191	9.0%	$48,464	High school diploma or equivalent
47-2141	Painters, Construction and Maintenance	100	1,020	1,109	89	8.7%	$40,098	High school diploma or equivalent
41-2022	Parts Salespersons	215	1,599	1,759	160	10.0%	$39,824	High school diploma or equivalent
37-3012	Pesticide Handlers, Sprayers, and Applicators, Vegetation	102	699	769	70	10.0%	$38,183	High school diploma or equivalent
47-2152	Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters	203	1,754	1,924	170	9.7%	$47,458	Some postsecondary education
33-3051	Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers	161	1,940	2,038	98	5.1%	$52,582	Some postsecondary education
13-1198	Project Management Specialists and Business Operations Specialists, All Other	129	1,599	1,695	96	6.0%	$72,439	Bachelor's degree
11-9141	Property, Real Estate, and Community Association Managers	128	1,453	1,581	128	8.8%	$44,733	High school diploma or equivalent
29-2034	Radiologic Technologists	84	973	1,098	125	12.9%	$56,169	Associate degree
29-1141	Registered Nurses	899	13,436	15,046	1,610	12.0%	$60,538	Bachelor's degree
41-4012	Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products	604	5,309	5,903	594	11.2%	$67,111	High school diploma or equivalent
41-4011	Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Technical and Scientific Products	170	1,481	1,659	178	12.0%	$103,784	Bachelor's degree
25-2031	Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education	239	3,147	3,353	206	6.6%	$48,624	Bachelor's degree
15-1256	Software Developers and Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers	299	2,649	3,440	791	29.9%	$85,913	Bachelor's degree
19-1013	Soil and Plant Scientists	90	666	797	131	19.7%	$65,858	Bachelor's degree
47-2221	Structural Iron and Steel Workers	119	952	1,100	148	15.6%	$44,988	High school diploma or equivalent
21-1018	Substance Abuse, Behavioral Disorder, and Mental Health Counselors	156	1,412	1,595	183	13.0%	$45,412	Bachelor's degree
51-4121	Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers	336	2,612	3,016	404	15.5%	$42,559	Some postsecondary education
*Notes:* The Top 30 to '30 icon indicates the occupation is a Top 30 career, ranked in the top 30 occupations with the greatest projected demand to 2030. SOC - Standard Occupational Classification (See SOC occupational descriptions on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) website. The SOC taxonomy is revised as needed over time to appropriately reflect changes in occupational duties and expectations. The version of the taxonomy used for each particular data set shown above varies along with the timeframe used for that data set. Additionally, sometimes the taxonomy is adapted for a particular program or data set. Occupational classification for a particular program is often a work in progress, with codes for some occupations modified multiple times before a final, static code is determined. During such transitions, an occupation may have more than one code associated with it. For these reasons, we have included in the table above all codes associated (across the various data sets displayed) with the occupations listed. When using other resources for occupational data, if you do not find the occupation by the SOC code listed, please contact us for assistance. For more information on average annual openings and other employment projections data used in the table above (2020 workers, 2030 workers, percent change 2020-2030), see our Employment Projections Technical Notes page. For more information on average annual wages, please see our Occupational Wages Technical Notes page. Employment projections data for additional occupations is available; please see our Occupational Projections menu. Wage data is also available for additional occupations; please see our Occupational Wages menu. Source: Labor Market Information Center, South Dakota Department of Labor and Regulation, August 2022.*

If you look at last month’s article on occupations with the greatest projected demand for workers, you will find just two occupations appearing on the Hot Careers list above: Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers and Registered Nurses. In all other cases, occupations making the Hot Careers list were not on the list of having the greatest projected demand for workers. Why the difference? Wages.

As analyzed in last month’s article, occupational transfers (those who leave one occupation for another) are a huge component of the overall projected demand for workers in the occupation. And as we learned in the article, transfers between occupations tend to be more common in occupations often considered “entry level,” where working conditions such as work schedules and the offering of employee benefits are less desirable. Wages in those occupations also tend to be more “entry level.”

Because of the criteria used, occupations on the Hot Careers list are also projected to have high demand for workers—but also have higher pay. You’ll notice many occupations on the Hot Careers list require postsecondary education or other vocational, technical or “on the job” training beyond high school. In other cases, the occupations often require extensive work experience in related fields, such as the various first-line supervisor occupations. For the most part, the Hot Careers require a unique knowledge and skill set achieved through education beyond high school, or through occupational-specific technical and/or on-the-job training. Demand for workers cannot be met with those who do not possess the requisite knowledge, skills or experience. In the labor market where supply and demand converge, the filtered supply of workers means wages tend to be higher.

The underlying message is, labor market data indicates there will be great South Dakota job opportunities in these Hot Careers for those willing to invest their time and effort to acquire the knowledge, skills and abilities needed, be it through formal education and/or work experience. For those interested in learning more about these great Hot Career opportunities, we offer a number of resources. Please visit our Hot Careers page for such resources as:

Occupational Profiles providing highlights of each Hot Career.
Links to the virtual labor market data system to explore any Hot Career in-depth.
Links to current job openings in each Hot Career.